DEMOGRAPHICS

Like many urban centers around the country, the Cincinnati region is experiencing growth outside the central city and county.  This growth in population and employment outside Hamilton County is predicted to continue, causing increasing infrastructure needs in the outlying counties.  However, Hamilton County will remain the leader in population and employment into the year 2040, thereby having its own share of significant travel needs.

By exploring the various residential and employment development trends existing and anticipated within the OKI region, transportation planners can better understand travel needs and plan for adequate public facilities and services.  Multiple transportation options serve the development patterns that exist in the region. By responding to distinctive transportation needs in differently developed areas, this plan strives to improve mobility throughout the region.

 

2010 to 2040 Population Projections

The 2010 Decennial Decennial is an adjective that describes something that recurs every ten years. U.S. Census is the foundation for the base yearA base year, or reference year, is a year used as the measure against which to compare data from a different year. The base year combined with the future year provides the planning period covered by this transportation plan. and future yearA future year, or horizon year, is used in transportation planning to forecast key traveler and transportation system characteristics. The metropolitan plan must always have a minimum 20-year future year or planning horizon. population data used for planning in the OKI region.  Year 2010 is the base year (as opposed to a more current year) to maintain consistency with employment data, the other major component of transportation planning analysis. Employment data is not as readily available as population data and requires extensive processing. 2010 employment data is the most current that is ready for use.

County-level population projections for 2020 through 2040 were developed by the Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana state data centers based on the 2010 Census. These population projections are mandated for use as control totals in OKI’s transportation planning efforts.

Population by County

The OKI region’s population is expected to surpass the two million mark by 2020. Between 2010 and 2040, the combined population of all eight counties is expected to grow 11 percent, from 1.9 million to 2.2 million.

SOURCE: 2010 Census; 2020-2040 projections by the Ohio Development Services (2013 Edition), Kentucky State Data Center (2011 Edition) and Indiana Business Research Center (2012 Edition). Get the Data


Population Change by County

As the Cincinnati metropolitan area has expanded over the years, growth has radiated through Hamilton County into the surrounding counties.  In fact, Warren and Boone counties have been and area predicted to continue to be among the fastest growing counties in their respective states.

Population is also projected to increase in the remaining counties over the 30-year planning period, with the exception of Hamilton and Campbell counties. Hamilton County consistently lost population during the last three decades of the 20th century, a trend that is expected to continue during the first three decades of the 21st century but reverse direction in 2040. Though the most populous county, Hamilton is expected to have a decreasing share of the region’s population (a projected drop from 40 percent in 2010 to 35 percent in 2040), but nonetheless continues to have at least 75 percent more residents than any of the other counties. Campbell County’s population is anticipated to continue fluctuating as it has in decades past, with an overall population loss by 2040.

 
2010-2040 Actual Change
2010-2040 Percent Change
2010 % Share of Regional Population
2040 % Share of Regional Population
Butler
62,230
16.9%
18.4%
19.4%
Clermont
18,827
9.5%
9.9%
9.7%
Hamilton
-16,284
-2%
40.1
35.4%
Warren
26,367
12.4%
10.6%
10.8%
Boone
105,876
89.1%
5.9%
10.1%
Campbell
-2,324
-2.6%
4.5%
4%
Kenton
18,243
11.4%
8%
8%
Dearborn
6,322
12.6%
2.5%
2.5%
OKI Region
219,257
11%
100%
100%
SOURCE:  2010 Census; 2020-2040 projections by the Ohio Development Services (2013 Edition), Kentucky State Data Center (2011 Edition) and Indiana Business Research Center (2012 Edition). Get the Data

Population Trends for Selected Metropolitan Areas and States

Between 2010 and 2040, the OKI region is projected to experience a rate of growth higher than that of the State of Ohio as a whole. However, in comparison with other metropolitan statistical areas Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) are geographic entities defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for use by federal statistical agencies in collecting, tabulating, and publishing federal statistics. A metropolitan area contains a core urban area of 50,000 or more population (MSAs) that are expected to gain population, the OKI region has the lowest growth rate. Growth rates in Columbus, Lexington, Louisville and Indianapolis are expected to range between 25 and 45 percent. In contrast, the Dayton metropolitan area (to the immediate north of the OKI region) and the Cleveland MSA in northeast Ohio are projected to lose population between 2010 and 2040.

 
2010
2020
2030
2040
2010-2040
Actual Change
2010-2040
Percent Change
OKI Region
1,999,474
2,082,325
2,157,945
2,218,731
219,257
11%
Cleveland
2,077,240
2,026,560
1,992,460
1,964,800
-112,440
-5.4%
Columbus
1,901,974
2,063,210
2,216,420
2,371,550
469,576
24.7%
Dayton
799,232
781,360
765,930
756,680
-42,552
-5.3%
Lexington
472,089
542,977
615,564
686,057
213,968
45.3%
Louisville
1,235,708
1,356,734
1,463,613
1,551,542
315,834
25.6%
Indianapolis
1,887,877
2,102,926
2,290,108
2,442,725
554,848
29.4%
 
2010
2020
2030
2040
2010-2040
Actual Change
2010-2040
Percent Change
Ohio
11,536,504
11,574,870
11,615,100
11,679,010
142,506
1.2%
Kentucky
4,339,367
4,672,754
4,951,178
5,162,292
822,925
19%
Indiana
6,483,802
6,852,121
7,143,795
7,333,590
849,788
13.1%
SOURCE: 2010 Census; 2020-2040 projections – Ohio Development Services (2013 Edition), Kentucky State Data Center (2011 Edition) and Indiana Business Research Center (2012 Edition). Get the Data

The Changing Age Structure

Population’s effects on transportation needs and travel patterns are indicated not only by geographic distribution but also by age and physical driving ability.

Age Composition for the OKI Region

As you view the semi-circle graphic below from left-to-right, different age categories appear in ranking order from highest-to-lowest percent of the overall regional population. While the percent of population in all of the age groups under 65 will be lower in 2040 than in 2010, the percent in the oldest age cohort A cohort is a group of individuals having a statistical factor in common. of 65+ will grow from 12 to 19 percent.

SOURCE: 2010 Census; 2020-2040 projections by Ohio Development Services (2013 Edition), Kentucky State Data Center (2011 Edition) and Indiana Business Research Center (2012 Edition). Get the Data


Baby Boomers

A big challenge in transportation planning is the Baby Boomer Generation. In the OKI region, the number of Baby Boomers is expected to grow from 240,000 in 2010 to 420,000 in 2040. Boomers are accustomed to driving and will do so as long as they are able, particularly since few alternatives are available in the suburban areas where many Boomers reside. Safety issues resulting from declines in physical capabilities will pose a challenge to safe travel for the Boomers and the rest of the traveling public.

The most significant change in the population’s age composition is the aging of the “Baby Boomer” and the rise in their 65+ cohort. “Baby Boomers” were born between 1946 and 1964. The large number of children born during this time created a need to expand schools and housing. As this generation reached adulthood and flooded the labor force, it caused high unemployment in the 1970s and 1980s and significant out-migration from Cincinnati’s saturated industrial-based economy. As this generation established its own households, it triggered a second wave of suburban development that is expected to continue through the  planning period.The planning period is defined by the parameters of the base year and future year.With the front end of the baby boom generation beginning to reach age 65 in 2010, growth in the elderly population is becoming significant for its travel implications. This age sector is projected to grow from 12 percent of the region’s population in 2010 to 19 percent in 2040.

While the proportion and number of persons in their retirement years will be increasing during the planning period, the proportion of this age group that drives will increase even faster. As today’s population ages, the elderly of the future will be almost universally licensed to drive, accustomed to driving on a nearly daily basis and scattered in suburban areas that are auto-dependent. The elderly will continue to drive as long as they are physically or legally able.

As the “over 65” age sector grows, safety will become increasingly important as a mobility issue. As people age, a number of the physical attributes needed for safe vehicle operation gradually decline. These physical factors include depth perception, visual acuity, peripheral vision, glare tolerance, reaction time and hearing.  Upon becoming aware that these capabilities are impaired, elderly drivers generally compensate by driving less and avoiding night driving, inclement weather, unfamiliar routes, and peak traffic periods. Nonetheless, there will be a greater need to consider the legibility of highway signs, adequate lane widths and other driving conditions improvements. Paved access and sheltered benches may enhance the elderly’s access and use of public transit. For elderly pedestrians, walking could be facilitated by traffic calming measures,Add a Tooltip Text reduced crosswalk distance, and increased crosswalk timing. To insure mobility for the elderly in suburban settings, there will be an increased need for attractive alternatives to the single-occupant vehicle.Add a Tooltip Text In addition to mobility issues, the increased size of the elderly population will affect travel patterns by its withdrawal from the labor force and entry into retirement. There will be fewer commute trips and a higher proportion of trips will be made for shopping, personal, social, recreational and medical purposes. For the elderly, driving will become less frequent and trips will shift from major highways to local streets in urban areas.

Millennials

Born between the early 1980s and early 2000s, the Millennial Generation, now ages 18 to 34, seems to be displaying behavior different from their forbearers. They have higher levels of education and are less inclined to marry young. At the national level, Millennials seem less likely to drive to work. However, in the OKI region, the percent of persons 18-34 driving to work has steadily increased over time. It is not known if the efficiency of the road system, the lack of viable transportation alternatives or other factors are responsible for the OKI region’s deviation from the national norm.

Another demographic group worthy of note is the “Millennial Generation.” Born between the early 1980s and the early 2000s, the Millennials as a whole seem to be exhibiting behavior different from their forbearers. Those aged 18 to 34 have higher levels of education, are less inclined to marry young, and are more likely to be living with their parents longer than young adults of past generations. This is true at the national level as well as the regional level. However, young adults in the OKI region differ in their travel patterns from their counterparts across the country. While the nationwide percent of 18 to 34 year-old commuters who drove to work fluctuated somewhat between 1980 and the period of 2009-2013, the percent of those driving to work in the OKI region increased each decade. It is not known if the efficiency of the road system, the lack of viable transportation alternatives or other factors are responsible for the OKI region’s deviation from the national norm.

Sandwiched between the much larger Baby Boomer and the Millennial generations are members of “Generation X,” those born between 1965 and 1980. In many respects Generation Xers’ attitudes and behavior occupy a middle ground between those who came before and those who will come after them. This, too, seems to be true in their commuting preferences at the national level.

Environmental Justice Groups

The concept of Environmental Justice (EJ) By applying Environmental Justice (EJ) policy, OKI expands its efforts to involve the public in its transportation decision-making and adds provisions for assessing the equity of transportation investments in the eight county region. The policy is focused on intensifying OKI’s outreach efforts, particularly as it relates to five EJ population groups (Minority, Low Income, Elderly, People with Disabilities and Zero-Car households).  is rooted in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 which prohibits discriminatory practices in programs and activities receiving federal funds. Transportation planning regulations issued in October 1993 require that metropolitan planning processes be consistent with Title VI. In February 1994, President Bill Clinton signed an executive order which amplified the provisions of Title VI by requiring federal agencies to make “achieving environmental justice part of its mission by identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects of its programs, policies and activities on minority and low income populations” (Executive Order 12898:  Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low Income Populations).

In compliance with this directive, OKI incorporated EJ evaluation into its long-range planning process. Specific groups in the OKI region identified for EJ evaluation include the elderly, minority population, people with disabilities, population in poverty and zero car households.

Concentrations of EJ groups within the OKI region were identified by establishing thresholds equal to the regional averages for the various target populations according to Five Year American Community Survey 2009 to 2013 data.

Data for each EJ population were aggregated by traffic analysis zone (TAZ), Add a Tooltip Text  the geographic unit used in OKI’s transportation analysis. Using as a basis a methodology developed by the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) and adding refinements, OKI classified geographic areas both equaling or exceeding the threshold values and having a numerical incidence of more than 250 as target zones for impact assessment purposes. The maps shown highlight the concentrations of the target populations by TAZ in the OKI region.

EJ Group Definitions

Elderly: Persons aged 65 or older

Minority Population: Persons from every racial category except White Alone plus all Hispanic persons

People with Disabilities: Non-institutionalized persons aged 16 to 64 years with any disability

Population in Poverty: Persons below the poverty level

Zero Car Households: Occupied housing units for which no car is available

SOURCE: American Community Survey, 2009-2013.

Environmental Justice Thresholds

Environmental Justice Group
2009-2013 OKI Region Total Population/Households
Threshold (percent)
Elderly population
251,330
12.5%
Minority population
394,660
19.7%
Population with disabilities
135,436
10.3%
Population in poverty
271,156
13.5%
Zero car households
64,335
8.3%
SOURCE:  American Community Survey, 2009-2013. Get the Data

Environmental Justice Maps

Households by County

SOURCE: 2010-2040 projections derived by OKI from population counts and projections for corresponding counties. Get the Data

Household Change by County

As with population, the greatest household growth rate will be found in Boone County where the number of households is expected to more than double during the planning period. In contrast, Hamilton and Campbell counties are projected to maintain their current number of households due to loss of population, aging of remaining population and redevelopment (resulting in lower density housing).

County
2010-2040 Actual Change
2010-2040 Percent Change
2010 % Regional Households
2040 % Regional Households
Butler
23,253
17.1%
17.4%
17.8%
Clermont
7,780
10.4%
9.6%
9.3%
Hamilton
6,353
1.9%
42.7%
38.1%
Warren
12,618
16.5%
9.8%
10%
Boone
48,102
11.3%
5.5%
10.2%
Campbell
-47
-0.1%
4.6%
4%
Kenton
8,951
14.3%
8%
8%
Dearborn
3,718
19.8%
2.4%
2.5%
OKI Region
110,728
14.2%
100%
100%
SOURCE:  2010-2040 projections derived by OKI from population counts and projections for corresponding counties. Get the Data

Household Change, 2010-2040

The dot map below shows the change in households between 2010 and 2040. The red dots represent a loss of 50 households and the green dots represent a gain of 50 households. The greatest growth is anticipated in Boone and Warren counties while Hamilton and Campbell counties are expected to maintain their current number of households.

2015DotDensity_Households_v3

Source:  2010-2040 projections derived by OKI from population counts and projections for corresponding counties.

Employment Change

Employment patterns affect the number, length and distribution of trips.  Although work trips comprise only 14 percent of the region’s total passenger trips, they create the greatest demand on the transportation system because of their morning and afternoon peak time periods. Currently, about one-half of the region’s population is employed. Employment as a percent of population in the OKI region is expected to remain around the 50 percent mark throughout the planning period (Year 2010 to 2040).

For years, the region’s employment grew much more rapidly than its population as the Baby Boomer generation reached working age and raised the proportion of the population absorbed into the labor force, and as a greater proportion of women entered the labor force. During the planning period, the regional employment growth rate will decelerate, reflective of a slowing in the region’s population growth rate, decline in women’s labor force participation rates, and retirement of the Baby Boomers. In 2040, the region’s employment level is projected to be less than 10 percent above its 2010 level, which represents an addition of approximately 95,000 jobs.

The slowing growth of the labor force and employment causes some uncertainty about the future. Unlike what happens in an economic downturn and restructuring, the loss of workers in this case does not in itself represent a loss of jobs. On both regional and national levels, the aging of the workforce is expected to cause a shortage of workers.

This shortage may be offset by increase in-migration in response to employment opportunities or by an influx of workers drawn out of retirement or drawn from other members of the labor force not currently employed. In contrast, there may not be a worker shortage if automation achieves new increases in productivity.

Employment by County of Work

In terms of distribution, employment growth is expected to follow the suburbanizing pattern of the population, as it has in recent decades. Five of the region’s eight counties are projected to continue to increase their shares of the region’s employment while Hamilton, Campbell and Dearborn counties’ shares are projected to level off or decrease. Regardless of shifts occurring in the region, Hamilton County is still expected to account for nearly half of all of the region’s jobs in 2040. The urban core (the cities of Cincinnati, Covington and Newport) is expected to remain a strong employment center as a result of economic development efforts.

SOURCE: 2010 – derived by OKI from QCEW data and other sources; 2020-2040 – projections derived by OKI from projected population and age-specific labor force participation rates adjusted for commuting into and out of the region. Get the Data

Employment Change by County

County
2010-2040 Actual Change
2010-2040 Percent Change
2010 Percent Share of Regional Employment
2040 Percent Share of Regional Employment
Butler
21,170
15.1%
14.6%
15.3%
Clermont
8,985
16.4%
5.7%
6%
Hamilton
18,918
3.7%
52.3%
49.5%
Warren
13,289
16.5%
8.4%
8.9%
Boone
16,715
22.5%
7.8%
8.6%
Campbell
3,604
12.3%
3%
3.1%
Kenton
10,159
16.3%
6.5%
6.9%
Dearborn
1,683
10%
1.8%
1.8%
OKI Region
94,523
9.8%
100%
100%
SOURCE:  2010 – derived by OKI from QCEW data and other sources; 2020-2040 – projections derived by OKI from projected population and age-specific labor force participation rates adjusted for commuting into and out of the region. Get the Data

Employment Change, 2010-2040

Similar to the dot map for households, a red dot in the map below represents a loss of 50 jobs and a green dot represents a gain of 50 jobs. As with households, the greatest growth in employment between 2010 and 2040 is anticipated to occur in the suburban areas of the OKI region. However, Hamilton County is still expected to account for nearly half of all the region’s jobs.

2015DotDensity_Employment_v3

Source:  2010 – derived by OKI from QCEW data and other sources; 2020-2040 – projections derived by OKI from projected population and age-specific labor force participation rates adjusted for commuting into and out of the region.

Commuting

By bringing together the two demographic factors of population (where people live) and employment (where people work), transportation planners can begin to understand the commuting needs that exist throughout the region. Historically, workers within the eight counties of the OKI region have exhibited varying commuting patterns.

Commuting Destination by Number of Workers

Same County

As the graphic below shows, Boone and Warren workers were increasingly more likely to commute within their home counties over time, indicating that those counties were providing more employment opportunities for their residents. In fact, the number of Boone and Warren workers employed within their residence counties more than doubled between 1990 and the period 2009-2013. Commuters in Butler and Clermont counties working in their residence counties increased in number from 1990 to the 2009-2013 period but the percentage of these commuters working in their home counties did not vary greatly over time.

Different County

In contrast, compared to 1990, a higher percentage of workers in Hamilton County commuted to jobs outside their county of residence during the period 2009-2013. This trend suggests that by the period 2009-2013 over 50,000 residents of Hamilton County found attractive job opportunities in other OKI counties and that the commute to those locations was acceptable. Campbell, Kenton and Dearborn county commuters showed relatively little change in the numbers or percentages of workers remaining in or leaving their residence counties to work.

Total

SOURCE: 1990-2000 Census Transportation Planning Packages derived from the 1990 and 2000 censuses, 2009-2013 Census Transportation Planning Products derived from the 2009-2013 American Community SurveyGet the Data

Commuting Destinations by Number of Workers and Residence County

By County

With regard to specific destinations, more workers in seven of the eight OKI counties commuted within their county of residence than traveled elsewhere in the OKI region to work during the 2009-2013 period. The second largest number of workers from each of those seven counties were employed in Hamilton County. In contrast, more Clermont County workers commuted to Hamilton County than traveled within their home county to work.

In and Out of Region

The 2009-2013 commuting patterns data also show that, in six of the eight OKI counties, over 93 percent of the workforce was employed within the region. In Warren County, the influence of the Dayton metropolitan area is evidenced by the 18 percent of the county’s workers who worked outside the region. Workers in Dearborn County are similarly drawn, though to a lesser extent, to neighboring counties in Indiana.

SOURCE:  Census Transportation Planning Products 2009-2013 American Community Survey. Table excludes workers commuting into the region from outside. Get the Data

Commuters within the OKI region exhibit very different behaviors in their journey-to-work patterns.  Data from the American Community Survey 2009-2013 provides insight into the differing modes of transportation to work utilized by the African-American, Hispanic, Low Income populations and People with Disabilities.

Commute Transportation Mode

Whereas 86 percent of the total population of the OKI region drove alone to work, no more than three-fourths of the African American, Hispanic, Low Income populations and People with Disabilities did so. The Hispanic population was most likely to carpool whereas African American and Low Income populations constituted the highest percent of commuters utilizing transit. Those living in poverty walked to work with the greatest frequency.

Source:  20092013 American Community Survey. Get the Data