FINANCIAL PLAN

Fiscal Constraint

Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act is the federal transportation funding bill signed into law on December 4, 2015 by President Obama. The act is consistent with previous bills that require metropolitan planning organizations like OKI to prepare a regional transportation plan that is fiscally constrained. This means that the cost of the projects in the Plan cannot exceed the amount of resources the region can reasonably expect to have available.

For a detailed discussion of funding, revenues, year of expenditure, inflation and demonstration of fiscal constraint, please click HERE.

Revenues

With information, data and assistance from state and federal partners OKI has estimated the reasonably expected resources available (“revenue”) by state. OKI takes into account the existing funding levels, the pledges afforded by the FAST Act and general economic outlook to estimate the revenue levels over the life of the Plan (2016 to 2040). Based on guidance provided by Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT), Ohio revenues are estimated to grow at an annual rate of about 1% per year over the life of the Plan. This accounts for a 5% growth in Fiscal Year 2016 (FY16), 2% annual growth from FY17 through FY20 and no growth in Fiscal Years beyond 2020. The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) estimates a 3.5% annual growth over the entire planning period. Indiana revenues are estimated to grow 1% per year.

Amount Available for Discretionary Capital Projects

A goal of this plan is to identify major investments beyond normal preservation or maintenance activities. These are typically capacity adding projects of all modes such as new and expanded roads, new public transit facilities, multi-use trails, and intelligent transportation systems (ITS). The table below summarizes the revenue assumptions, the estimated portions allocated for the main expenditure categories (new highway capacity, highway operations and maintenance, non-highway, transit capital and transit operating) and the amount available for discretionary projects.

 

Ohio

 Annual Base AmountPlan Period TotalAvailable for Plan (2020-2040)
OHIO
New Highway Capacity Total$3,744,886,056
$2,907,848,876
Highway Operations & Management Total$3,711,939,845
$3,255,341,314
Non-Highway Total$186,695,199
$186,134,199
Transit Capital$933,475,996

$805,098,456
Transit Operating$2,405,073,450
$2,070,487,818
Total Ohio Region ExpendituresOhio: 1% annual growth based on ODOT recommendation. ODOT data for OKI counties for years 2011-2015 used. Project type ratios and reasonably expected revenues based on 5 years expenditure data. See Ohio Annual & Average tab$380,423,693
$10,982,070,546
$9,726,170,395
Discretionary AvailableDiscretionary Available includes New highway capacity, Non-Hwy and Transit capital less the amount already programmed in the TIP.$3,899,081,532

 

Kentucky

 Annual Base AmountPlan Period TotalAvailable for Plan (2020-2040)
KENTUCKY
New Highway Capacity Total$3,099,403,604
$2,800,023,484
Highway Operations & Management Total$1,674,938,637
$1,600,795,908
Non-Highway Total$283,240,262
$272,151,131
Transit Capital$264,048,281
$237,983,989
Transit Operating$869,494,399
$783,666,323
Total Kentucky Region ExpendituresKY: 3.5% annual growth based on KYTC recommendations. Proportion of NKY funds relative to the entire state provided to OKI by KYTC. Project type ratios based on entire KY state data over 5 year period. See KY Rev Projections tab.$156,463,279
$6,194,222,293
$5,697,717,945
Discretionary AvailableDiscretionary Available includes New highway capacity, Non-Hwy and Transit capital less the amount already programmed in the TIP.$3,310,158,603

 

Indiana

 Annual Base AmountPlan Period TotalAvailable for Plan (2020-2040)
INDIANA
New Highway Capacity Total$70,104,188
$70,104,188
Highway Operations & Management Total$212,713,321
$168,352,826
Non-Highway Total$10,026,735
$9,751,735
Transit00
Total IndianaRegion ExpendituresIN: 1% annual growth. INDOT data for Dearborn County for years 2007-2016 used. Large Locally-funded project (US-50 included). Project type ratios and reasonably expected revenues based on 10 years of INDOT STIP expenditure data.$9,660,529
$292,844,244
$248,208,749
Discretionary AvailableDiscretionary Available includes New highway capacity, Non-Hwy and Transit capital less the amount already programmed in the TIP.$79,855,923

OKI Region

 Annual Base AmountPlan Period TotalAvailable for Plan (2020-2040)
OKI Region$546,547,500
$17,469,137,084
$15,672,097,090
Regional Total Discretionary $7,289,096,058

Project Costs

The Plan contains a variety of projects identified to address existing community needs and forecasted conditions. OKI receives candidate projects from by local and state agencies which are normally accompanied with base year cost estimates. When necessary, cost estimates are prepared by staff based on local and national average unit cost values. Inflation rates are applied to arrive at a “year of expenditure (YOE)” cost. For example the cost of a project expected to be constructed in 2040 reflects 2016 base year cost inflated to 2040 dollars. This Plan uses an annual inflation rate of 2.5% which is consistent with the ODOT business plan and similar to other MPO’s throughout Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana.

For more on project cost information, please click HERE.

Project Timing

Recognizing that resources will be available on an annual basis, the timing of project implementation is critical in estimating a reasonable cost in terms of YOE. Complexity of the project development process and the available resources dictates that projects will be implemented over the many years of the Plan. Project timing is also used in the transportation air quality conformity determination.

To view the Project List, please click here.

Regional Summary of Recommended Plan Costs by Project Type

Project Type
Cost Estimate ($ Millions)
Widening/Relocation
$1,701
Maintenance/Reconstruction
$239
Traffic Operations
$410
Bridge
$3,364
ITS
$75
Transit
$529
Bike/Ped
$200
Freight
$16
Total
$6,533

Regional Summary of Recommended Plan Costs by Project Type ($ Millions)

Road & Bridge
$5,713
ITS
$75
Transit
$529
Bike/Ped
$200
Freight
$16

 

Distribution of Plan Cost for Roadway Project Types ($ Millions)

Widening/Relocation
$1,701
Maintenance/Reconstruction
$239
Traffic Operations
$410
Bridge
$3,364